Q. Cody, I think it could be very interesting to hear your thoughts on this market situation and please let us know what are you thinking as possible action for a market rebound or if it keep falling. Thanks
A. Feet to fire, my take on the market for the near-term is that I think all this day-to-day volatility and big sell-offs are wearing out the bulls and the longs and weak-handed traders. That has probably turned the path of least resistance lower for the next few days or weeks. Again this is feet-to-fire analysis and not something I'm trying to game. I'm going to scale into the best stocks on an opportunistic basis in the context of the broader market near-term moves. My overall analysis continues to point to further bubble-blowing bull market action in years ahead. And regardless, I want to buy Revolutionary stocks that we can own, at least part of our positions in, forever.
Q. Right now I am 42% cash as hedged but I think it could be more interesting work on shorting something. Just now I am thinking we could have bought $SPXU, or something like that, Just ideas...
A. Are you sure trying to game a near-term market action move is a sustainable and helpful kind of trade for you and your money personally? Just think about that 10,000 days concept I keep trying to hammer home before you do anything. Other than that, I do think $BKS is acting like it might break down lower again, so maybe look at starting something short-wise there if you do decide to take some risks on the short-side. I'm also constantly trying to find the hyped-up bubble stocks like $JRJC and $DGLY, both of which, by the way, are getting absolutely crushed again today and are at new lows since I cited them.
Q. How do you handle not stopping yourself out of all your stocks in a down market?
A. There's no easy way to manage broader market sell-offs sustainably, but you need to make sure you have a plan for them anyway. Here's the simplest way to answer your question: If the broader market sells off 10% and many of our highest-beta stocks, including, say $FB and $GOOG and $AMBA and $SNDK and so on were down 15% or more from their current levels, would you be able to sleep at night? Would you have the money and the guys to nibble some more on them while they're down? If you manage your buying and trimming and nibbling and selling your stock portfolio properly, the broader market moves can fade in importance anyway.
Q. Cody, high five on $HIMX. Guess "discipline' has two meanings, huh? -- discipline to trim when things are great and flying high, and then discipline the next day not to say." Why did I trim only a fifth of what i had,"( But I'm being strong.) BTW, although I guess it's usually a judgment call, but when you advise to trim, let's say, one-fifth (and sometimes you say "one-fifth of my profit or one-fifth of my gain"), is it roughly one-fifth of total market value/one-fifth of shares or options you're holding/literally one-fifth of your gain . . . or what?
A. I mean 1/5 of my total number of shares in that particular stock when I say "I'm going to trim 1/5th of my common stock position." As for the "why did I only sell 'part' at the high, instead of all of it?" logic, read this. I wrote it seven years ago when I was about to quit running my hedge fund to go to TV: "For the past five years of running money I didn’t even have an alarm clock. There was no need. The knot in my gut that came with the pressure of running other people’s money swelled long before the sun rose each morning. For four and a half years I was up and attentive at every single market opening. Such steadfast dedication was exhilarating . . . and exhausting. Running money is unlike any other job because you can quantify your results at any moment. And then you and your investors can gauge just how stupid or smart you are at that moment. Of course, a good money manager never really thinks he’s smart – there’s no place on Wall Street for successful complacency. You lost money? You’re an idiot. You had a good streak but still underperformed a booming market? You’re an idiot. You blew away the market but had too many hedges, which capped the gain? Yup, you’re an idiot." http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/b50a535a-896c-11dc-b52e-0000779fd2ac.html#axzz3EuxOm8zX
- Cody Willard