@2903 No 16 Professor Catherine Barnard #Brexit & why it takes two to Tango by Catherine Barnard

September 6th 2019

2903cb podcast number 16 #Brexit – “It takes two to Tango!”

Can Boris Johnson’s government pull off a new deal with the EU or will his “do or die” mantra lead to a no-deal Brexit at the end of October 2019?

Catherine Barnard, Professor of EU Law at the University of Cambridge and Senior Fellow of UK in a Changing Europe resumes her @2903cb series with podcast number 16 looking at Boris Johnson’s government’s prospects of securing a new deal with the EU.

With a slimmed down negotiating team headed by David Frost, claims that Johnson could secure a better Withdrawal Agreement than his predecessor as Tory leader Theresa May did as Prime Minister are now met with scepticism by most commentators. But Johnson himself repeats his “do or die” Brexit mantra and after a gaff prone week when Parliament has taken control and formed a cross party coalition to pass its own Bill to prevent a no-deal crash out, it’s Johnson’s premiership which is now looking fragile with journalists asking him openly if he will now resign on October 31st rather than being forced to ask the EU for another extension to the end of January 2020 as stipulated in Hilary Benn’s new Brexit Extension Withdrawal Bill.

Johnson’s tactic of proroguing Parliament appears to have back fired succeeding in uniting the opposition parties and leading to 21 members of his own party being expelled for defying the government’s whip on Monday and voting with the opposition.

A High Court challenge by campaigner Gina Miller to that Proroguing of Parliament has today been thrown out by the UK High Court as it was by the Scottish courts earlier in the week but appeals are pending.

With the EU looking on with incredulity and not even knowing if Johnson’s Government will stand the test of time in any negotiations Professor Barnard, gives a clear headed analysis of the twists and turns in this three plus years of negotiations, what the UK got right, and why the EU was able to dictate the sequences of the negotiations to its own advantage while the UK negotiators dug their heels in to insist on as favourable terms in leaving as they would have done if they had stayed in the single market or what the commentators now term as “cakeism”!

Johnson’s claim that the EU will drop the main sticking point to an Agreement the Northern Ireland backstop has not come to fruition. Negotiations are said to have stalled although there are meetings taking place between the UK and the EU.

Barnard key quote: “I think it is increasingly unlikely we will leave on the 31st October 2019 now because of the Benn Bill, but of course under Article 50 it takes two to tango. Although we may request an extension it is up to the EU 27 by unanimity to agree to grant that extension. The French have been making noises to say they are not very happy about all this, so they may still block that and we may still leave with no-deal at the end of October. If however there is likely to be a democratic moment in the offing, either a second Referendum, or a General Election I think there is a good chance that they will grant a further extension. "